Article 6120

Title of the article



Podkopaev Aleksandr Vladimirovich, candidate of technical sciences, associate professor, sub-department of operation of aviation arms complexes (and aiming systems), Air Force Military Educational and Scientific Center «Air Force academy named after professor N. E. Zhukovsky and Y. A. Gagarin» (54А Starykh bol'shevikov street, Voronezh, Russia), E-mail:
Podkopaev Ilya Aleksandrovich, engineer and tester, State flight Test Center named after V. P. Chkalov (military unit 15650-9, Shchelkovo-10, Moscow region, Russia), E-mail: 

Index UDK

62-192 : 004.421.4 




Background. Modern and promising complex technical systems (hereinafter referred to as the system for brevity) are characterized by a complication of connection structures and increased requirements for the reliability of elements. Given the priority of the most important stage of systems operation - the intended use, we will devise a methodology for assessing reliability, as a property that reflects the main content of reliability. For most elements, the tabulation of the values of the statistical reliability indicators in the process of processing data from the field of operation of the systems does not present significant computational difficulties. However, when analyzing the failure-free operation of systems for which the operating time to failure of the elements is not available (for example, for elements recently commissioned or in the absence of information on the functioning conditions of the element again brought into the structure of the developed or modernized system), direct algorithmization of engineering methods based on the collection of statistical information is not possible. The aim of the work is the development of an interconnected set of mathematical and logical flowcharts for obtaining and applying factual knowledge in the mathematical software of the procedure for calculating the reliability of systems of varying degrees of statistical certainty.
Materials and methods. A promising direction in such studies is the differentiated selection of proven methods of physical reliability with the choice of the appropriate mathematical and algorithmic apparatus for direct probabilistic modeling of systems.
Results. A block diagram is proposed and a practical application of a synthesized algorithm for simulating the failure-free assessment of the reliability of systems of various entropy is considered (hereinafter, the algorithm).
Summary. Using the developed algorithm, there is no need for decomposition of systems, and the potential of multiple repetitions of the results of a random process of changing the technical states of elements and systems determines the possibility of obtaining large samples with high accuracy of program compilation. 

Key words

statistically determined and statistically indefinite element, direct probabilistic modeling, reliability indicators of elements and systems, reliability methods, exponential distribution, frame, expert system 

Download PDF


Дата создания: 27.05.2020 14:58
Дата обновления: 27.05.2020 17:29